This is not a book review. I am not a qualified reviewer, and neither am I knowledgeable enough to review a book by an eminent journalist like Sanjaya Baru. But having just finished the book, I thought it might be worth commenting on the political situation—for after all, in a democracy, everyone has a right to air their thoughts.
Unlike what everyone thought (especially the media who were looking for a byte from Baru in the chat shows that were held immediately after the launch of the book) the book was not a part of the BJP’s election campaign to ensure that the timing of the release was to deliver the final knockout punch to Dr Manmohan Singh. In fact, the book is a sincere attempt to establish Dr Singh as one of the finest Prime Ministers that we ever had. If anything, it is a book directly attacking the Congress Party, especially the 10 Janpath caucus, who let down a man who won the 2009 Elections for them. Baru has also been open about the fact that Dr Singh should have tried his hand to obtain a Lok Sabha seat and that he should have quit when his own party dumped him lock, stock and barrel. Even if he did not seek a popular mandate from the people, Dr Singh should have walked out with dignity, rather than allowing himself to get maligned by his own party members and the Opposition.
The book calls for an introspection of two major parties in the Indian political system. The Congress and the CPI (M)—or rather, whatever is left of them. There is an amazing similarity. Despite being a part of the democratic process, both parties are run on the whims of a single person whose words are accepted as the final solution—Sonia Gandhi and Prakash Karat. In case of Sonia Gandhi, there is a team of flunkeys waiting in the wings to carry forward her diktat; in the case of Karat, he is the sole petitioner, arbitrator, jury, judge, and ironically, his own executioner. Sonia has an one-point agenda: Rahul; Karat too has an one-point agenda: Karat. What is disgusting is that they are the leaders of two major political parties who operate within a democratic system. The bad seeds they sowed have reaped huge dividends. The Congress Party has been vanquished and with a self-destructive leadership in place (thankfully, it is being questioned by many in the party itself now), it is not difficult to predict the rise of another splinter group. What Indira did in 1969 may just be the path that some Congressmen may adopt. The sooner we have another few splits in the Congress Party, the Nehru–Gandhi family party may be over forever. And that will be good for the party and the country.
The CPI (M) has been decimated in Bengal. Even in Kerala they are weak (the ruling party being Congress may help them out). There is already a lot of dissatisfaction amongst the cadres in Bengal about the way the Central leadership (read Karat) have messed up matters. Many of them have publicly asked for his head. The way out will perhaps be another 1964 type split with Bengal and Tripura coming together.
This may read like a list of wishful thoughts, but while the wishes may not come true the way I hope, there will be rumbles. Some people in Congress are getting vocal about Rahul’s leadership, or rather, the lack of it. Many do not want him to campaign in the forthcoming state elections. Abdul Rezzak Molla and a few others have already quit the CPI (M). Either way, BJP will get stronger. In a state like Bengal, where they once had a token representation in the Jan Sangh era in Haripada Bharati (later in 1999 they won two seats in the Lok Sabha, as also in 2014), hordes of Congressmen and even Left cadres are joining the BJP. It may be a case of survival for now, but like elsewhere, the BJP is only growing stronger. A much-splintered Congress, or a CPI (M) will only help the BJP gain higher ground. Simply put, the BJP is here to stay, with more states going BJP. If their ‘Theory of 44’ works out, we may soon see a BJP government taking oath in Srinagar.
And if my assessment is correct, then we will soon democratically turn our selves into a single party rules for the next two decades. The way out will be to dismantle the current leadership system of a one-person rule (in many, rather most cases) to a one-family rule. The Yadavs, the Paswans, the Thackreys, the Gandhis, the Karunanidhis. And a Karat.
It is the morning after. The Indian National Congress have just recorded their worst performance in their history. They have won only 44 seats. Only 5 of the winners had something actively to do with the previous Government. The rest are all eating humble pie, one of them is thinking of opening a tea stall in front of the BJP Headquarter in Delhi.
I am being rude. And though I too never wanted the Congress to have any hand in forming the next Government, I still think I want to open up my feelings. Not that I care how Congress manages themselves after this defeat. It does not bother me if Digvijay Singh is made the party President or they replace a Rahul with a Priyanka. My anger is directed at their arrogance. At taking us for granted under the garb of development. At their indifference to fill their coffers at the people’s expense. At an Accidental Prime Minister who never spoke. At mocking their opponents.
If the NDA has touched 334 seats with BJP alone crossing the half way mark, it is not because of any Modi Wave. It was a definitive anti Congress/UPA wave. Today it is not a matter of speculation. It is for all to see. Right there, staring at us. 44 seats. I would love to hear what Mani Shankar Ayer, the man who has not grown beyond the Stephen’s Debating Club has to say about a chai wallah. What a darpok in P Chidambaram will say in his clipped English? What is the vision of Mr Shinde? How much will Smiley Sibal smile at his own defeat?
What is equally sad is that no one in the party for a minute thought that they have no connect with the people. Actually they have never been bothered about the people of the country. Just a few window dressings like MNERGA (which many suspect was a channel to siphon off money) does not make you win an election. On the other hand the crony capitalist whom they supported promptly shifted their loyalty on seeing which way the wind was blowing.
What surprises me is the way they are still trying to hang on to their masters, read 10, Janpath. I have never understood why they do this? Survival? Perhaps, but then you sink when your anchor sinks. And what good does 10, Janpath do to them? This is not the grand old party, it is just a new party. A party which has gone out of their way to protect a Robert Vadra. And paid for it. A party which talks about their role in the Indian democratic system but has no democracy within. Remember Jitendra Prasad? He was perhaps the last person to have contested for the post of the Party President and the powers that are saw to it that he lost.
The only academic interest that the Congress party can now provide is to tell the world how they plan to revive. All that big talk, aimed at keeping the Gandhis happy “we are a big party…we will turn around…” will not help. Can Rahul Gandhi come out of the shadow of his mother? Out of the shadow of the Digvijays, Kamals, Anands, Sibals? Can he be allowed to decide for himself what he wants to do? The way he wants to do it? Can he get rid of the sycophantic system that cripples the party? Does he himself want to be a part of the party?
When you are down, people offer all kinds of advices. I am sure the Rameshs, the Ayers and many of his friends must be doing so to win brownie points. For once, can Rahul listen to himself? Cut the umbilical chord? Get on board people who can offer positive advise?
My bet is that he will never be allowed to do it. The Patels, the Singhs, the scam tainted Chavans will never allow sane voices near him. That will ultimately decimate the party further. Their only route to survival and resurgence is dependent on the performance of Modi Sarkar, rather the slips in the new Sarkar. But Modi is a grass root man, who has come to power on his own, and how! He has experience in administration, in the organisation, right from his RSS days. He may have sold chai, but he also master minded Advani’s rath, and later got Advani to sit on the sidelines.
Living on some hope that Modi will blunder is a long way off. The Congress Party has to take a leaf from the Communist Party of China, do some purging, do some Cultural Revolution. You will recall Rajiv Gandhi, for whatever reason he thought best had got rid of the strong men in the Indira cabinet and that included people like Pranab Mukherjee (who subsequently left the party) and Ghani Khan Chaudhuri. He may take a leaf from his grand mother’s 1967 cabinet, when she had got a number of people outside the party fold like Kumar Mangalam, T A Pai and included them in her cabinet.
To start with, can he show that he means business by really keeping the promise to the bhaiyas of Amethi, not by leaving it to another set of crisp khaddar kurta types, but by a set of professionals? And getting a fresh team of non political people to manage his affairs?
Once he takes the first decision, the rest will follow. If he is being made to take the rap, he should also extract his pound of flesh.
Even before the match started. In the final analysis it turned out to be a party full of darpoks, shirkers, escapists, liars. I say liar since all these years they said they were at the beck and call of their “owners”, the Gandhis, and are now refusing to take calls from 10 Janpath, per chance they are told to contest. P Chidambaram, the man most people hold responsible for the economic debacle (and according to many others, the person who controlled the stock market) has fled — both from his responsibility and his commitment. I am sure he wants a “safe seat” via Rajya Sabha. His son says, “Daddy said to smile!” Atta boy, Karthi!! Manish Tewari, the monotone speaker par excellence who crafted the Bharat Nirman campaign has had health issues and does not want to contest from Ludhiana. What he is doing is what school children do before the exam day. Fall sick. His case may be genuine, but we people see nothing good about the UPA. Poor Mani Shankar Aiyyar. He has had to prove his loyalty to the Gandhi family by opting out of the Rajya Sabha and return to Mayuram. Poor Ghulam Nabi Azad, Ambica Soni (oye hoye, I thought she was a discarded colleague), Amrinder Singh have all been coaxed and cajoled by 10 Janpath to be brave in the face of adversity. Even Anand Sharma is looking elsewhere when his name is being called out. MMS is busy packing up his boriya bistar, he will soon be occupying the bungalow vacated by Sheila Dikshit.
I had mentioned in one my earlier blogs that people close to Sonia Gandhi do not want Rahul Gandhi to come to power as it will mean transfer of the power base from Team Sonia to Team Rahul. Fact is, poor Rahul, and I say this with some genuine truth, has been left to fight for himself. He is doing his best, mouthing good intentions; but he does not seem to have any takers even within his party. His Unca Diggy is still smiling, waiting to be named the sacrificial lamb as the Congress candidate from Varanasi. As of now, a Kalmadi is sulking (what cheek, he had suggested that if he is dropped, the party may nominate his wife, if not his daughter! Constituencies are becoming personal fiefdom of some politicians, referred to in Hindi as ‘baap ka raaj’), Ashok Chavan is still hanging, but another scam-under-investigation minister, Pawan Bansal has been gifted Chandigarh. Sheila Dikshit has been moved up to a Constitutional Post so that she is insulated from the CWG dust. Very honest party, indeed. Also, as of today, Shinde continues to have tea with 2G accused, Mr Balwa, and accuses the former Home Secretary, R K Sinha of speaking bakwas now that Mr Sinha is a BJP candidate.
The status of INC, who are not even finding candidates to field is indeed a sad commentary. Where is the party discipline? Where are the grand ideas of Rahul Gandhi? Where is the party? Have they left everything to the mercy of Sanjay Jha? Why do we see so little of their spokesperson brigade led by Jayanti Natarajan? Party work? And I guess like Jayanti Natarajan, loud mouth Renuka Chaudhuri would also like to return to party work. Yes, they should all return to party work — except that to me, the Indian National Congress will soon be relegated to a foot note in India’s history.
Sign #2
One thing is certain, no matter how much we speak of our great democratic traditions, the way politicians are changing their jerseys, I think the people need to stand up and seek total reforms. Every day, nay hour, a news break tells us Mr X of so and so party (read Congress) has joined so and so party (read BJP). And BJP is happily accepting these Congressmen. Satpal Maharaj, Jagadmba Pal, Col Sonaram…it looks like a parade. Even N K Singh, the man who was the principal advisor to Nitish Kumar all these years and was credited with the Bihar Developmental Blueprint is also looking for a way out. Suddenly these deserters find that the party they ‘served’ was giving them a cold shoulder, that it was turning dictatorial, the High Command was “not listening to them” (read, ‘they did not give me/my followers the seats I wanted’). Digvijay Singh may be on record in saying that BJP is engineering these defections, but did these deserters go through a spell of realization just after EC declared the election dates? I suppose till yesterday they were all in awe and admiration of their High Command (read, 10 Janpath). With no respect to the political class, you don’t serve your High Command (irrespective of the party). You serve the people. That is just the single reason why you are in the business.
I can understand people opting out of the party they served for their personal agendas — but how come the BJP has had an open door policy? Isn’t this the party with a difference? Isn’t this the party which is promising to deliver us from evils? Development? Governance? Ram Rajya? Free us of corruption? Communalism (hic!)?
With the likes of Yeddurappa? Sriramulu? Reddy Brothers? Under the garb of ‘Winnability’? Not sure, are you? These guys will make the difference? As will Amit Shah, who is not even allowed to enter Gujarat?
BJP is not sure of a sweep. Else they would not have run the winnability program. And if they were looking for a sweep, their slips have shown up so badly that may do some rethinking.
Let us do a reality check. Here we have had a Congress led-UPA Government, which by all accounts have sunk the nation. Particularly, corruption. There we have a BJP, the other large party, almost like a port in storm, who come forward and say let us take over, we will clean up and give the economy buoyancy. Fair deal. In fact, the UPA has laid it out for them on a platter. What they should have done is to have come forward as a party, talked about the success of their state leaders like Shivraj Patil, Narendra Modi, Dr Raman Singh, showcased a team full of identifiable and respected politicians like Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, backed by stalwarts like Advani, Jaswant Singh and told the nation, we are ready, bring us to power. In the process they should also have collectively decided to make Advanis of the world as Peetamahas, what they call in corporate circles ‘Chairman Emeritus’, and put them on a pedestal, sought their blessings.
What they did was just the reverse. A group of four, led by Rajnath Singh actually hijacked the party and upfronted a Narendra Modi, who till the other day was the face of communal violence. We would like to accept it or not, he has not been cleared of the Godhra riots and what with charges against his own ministers (one of them has been sentenced to a 28 year term), it is difficult to accept that he is squeaky clean. Throughout his campaign, he has not, at least to me, spelt out his vision of the ‘new’ India. Look hard, he has taken on the Congress, Rahul Gandhi, the Left (and parties who they know will never ever join them), economic downtrend; but in between his Bhaiyon aur Bahenos, he has not talked about a blueprint. All he wants is a Modi-Sarkar.
Voting for individuals has always resulted in a disaster. Man who comes to my mind is Debkanta Barooah, a former Congress President for his now infamous, ‘India is Indira’. You vote for a manifesto and if you look hard, the BJP had it all ready — courtesy the UPA, of course. The BJP as a party would have been more acceptable as an alternate solution — but the Group of Four, in their wisdom, have moved to an individual, dumping the collective decision process of a party. In demolishing the party, they have created more problems within. And you can’t help it, no matter how much erudite right wing thinkers like Swapan Dasguptas try to defend — the BJP is a party split wide open.
Godhra or no Godhra, Modi is responsible for the development of Gujarat. This was another mistake committed by the Group of Four. It is not exactly true. His efforts have been as good or as bad as those of Nitish in Bihar, or Shivraj Chauhan in MP, or even Dr Raman Singh in Chattisgarh. On the hind sight, by showcasing Gujarat they have opened up the Pandora’s Box. The “development” is now being defended more by Modi than opening it all up and letting people decide. Somewhere there is a lack of confidence.
To my mind they should have presented all BJP run states. It would have given more confidence to the people. The people would have felt far more comfortable in bringing them in — as a body.
Political analysts say that in the last ten years Modi has cut to size any leader and has hogged the show all to himself. Is this what he is likely to do when he becomes PM? He does have a dictatorial attitude, and right now he has the support of Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah and Nitin Gadkari. These four constitute the BJP, or whatever is left of it. And one day he will get them out, barring Shah. What and the way they did to Jaswant Singh, Haren Pathak, M M Joshi, I am sure did not leave a good taste in their own mouths. There is an open revolt which is breaking loose.
You may, dear reader, think that I am putting him down. No, I am asking you to look at issues rationally and you will know what I am talking about. Sure, go ahead and vote for Modi, but before you do that let me make you think hard for a moment and trash me in style. Not a la FB way. You may say all you are saying is fine, but what is the option? Can’t have the UPA back for the rest of our lives… Today it is not time to say “Yes, he is bad, but Congress is worse.” But the way they are playing the winnability card (they even had that Pramod Muthalik in for a while) I am not seeing them any different from the Congress. And don’t feel very elated by Akbar having crushed Rajdeep. A piece of advise. Yell your NaMo to stay away from this man. He is more insecure than NaMo!!
Well today we don’t have an option. We are jumping into the water chanting ‘Har Har Modi’. The Modi brigade, led by the editor of Manusi had even said that we have a ‘sarkari Shankaracharya’!!
Sign # 3
You know, when channels keep showing their poll predictions that Kejriwal is a likely choice for the PM post, I feel like getting up and giving them a tight slap. Why is this question asked at all? The PM race is between Rahul Gandhi and Modi, with fringe players like Amma, Didi and perhaps even ‘dil se hain’ Mulayum. But Kejriwal? Come on! You expect a leader of a rag tag party, who is not likely to get more than 4 seats to be the PM? Why ask?
There is just a point. With a Modi (er, not BJP) in complete control, it may be to our benefit to see to it that they get about 10 seats (which even I know is a wishful thinking). At least they can act as a watch dog. They should, and would, never come to power — but they can do wonders by staying out of it. To start with, they may not have done anything worthwhile in their 49 days, but they have got the Election Commission to ask the Oil Ministry to defer notification of new gas price till general elections are completed, after taking cognizance of Arvind Kejriwal’s letter to the EC. This is just the kind of things we want them to do. The AAP really have no wish to sit in power, even though they have fielded some great candidates, including a Nobel Prize nominee. She will not win, nor will Medha Patekar, or Meera Sanyal, or Gul Panag. Sad, these are people, along with Rajmohan Gandhi (whom I have followed ever since he was into Moral Rearmament, more since West Indian opener Conard Hunte was a part of it) and Yogendra Yadav are people we want to see in the Parliament. Why have I included Gul Panag’s name? From what little I have followed, she is doing a much better job than many seasoned politicians put together. I doubt if the BJP and Congress band of stars can do the same. One TMC star (Dev) has declared that when being raped, one should enjoy it. Another, a Congress star, was kissed in public by a leader of her own party. Disgusting!
One big mistake that the AAP have done (and I am sure they had no option) was to have gone into the General Elections. With a party that has not yet been set up, structured and organized, they cannot afford to win Lok Sabha seats. So, as far as the Congress and Modi are concerned, they have no fear. An odd upset here and there may be just OK. I blame them for the Somnath Bharti episode, but not for the 49 days in power status. Again think hard — both the BJP and Congress have played games and actually come together to ease them out. No, next time I am sure they will be better organized. Once the elections are over, they will have all the time to rework on themselves. They certainly need help and that they will get.
Right now let’s keep them out of the mainframe. They have a specific task to do and let them do that. How they will fare in the future is in the realm of speculation. But they don’t seem to be a flash in the pan.
Sign # 4
The worst thing that has happened to out social and public life is the role of the media. Paid, Unpaid, Corporate-supported, TRP-supported, whatever; they have taken the democratic process to the pits. And to quote them back, “Hamam mein sab nangey hain.” My generation have been brought up by Girilal Jain, Frank Mores, Alfred Evan Charlton, S. Nihal Singh and today, to see the dumb charades and motivated writings both on the electronic and print media, it is more than a culture shock. The role of the media today is absolutely crass when it comes to politics and added with the social media, we have reduced political debates to a farce.
Why? The Nation wants to know! Will the media owners stand up and tell us, please?
Every time a channel throws up their pre-poll survey results, three names keep coming up as prospective PMs—Modi, Gandhi and Kejriwal. These three are followed by a host of regional leaders like Jayalalitha, Mulayum, Mayawati, Mamata. As of now we have not sighted a dark horse, like a Deve Gowda or a Gujral, even though I have been maintaining that we will probably land up with one.
Really?
Well, to start with let us be practical and dismiss Kejriwal. There is no chance that AAP will make it to more than 15 seats at best, make that 20 and even with those 20 seats AAP is not likely to join a NDA or an UPA. Will they join a Third Front? Not sure, though AAP and the Left parties look like natural allies. You never know how post-poll pressures are created, like the one AAP was left with after the Delhi polls; but the AAP is still a regional party and they would better to keep themselves focussed on Delhi, Haryana and Punjab, and winning a few stray seats in Mumbai and Bangalore. They could win more, but one problem that I foresee is that the party is more occupied with fielding candidates and trying to whip up support instead of putting up a system to “manage” the elections. All parties will tell you that choosing a candidate to managing the election process is a very serious business, involving money, strategy, manpower and so on. The AAP may have volunteers, but the process has to be managed and while there are a large number of talents with management skills, communication skills, leadership qualities—most of them are confined to putting up FB posts. Where AAP is lacking, looking at a national perspective, is backroom management. They are more concerned about Kejriwal’s road shows and the crowd that he may be pulling in. AAP’s Gujarat agenda is more tokenism. Showmanship does not always translate into seats.
Next, Rahul Gandhi. You don’t have to watch poll predictions to realise that the UPA will be losing hands down. No, no way they can come to power. It was 10 years of misgovernance, corruption by the hour and even rebellion within the party. Rahul Gandhi’s idea of doing Prelims in some constituencies have come a cropper. It is clear that Ajay Maken has “managed” to be the walk-over candidate, Jagdish Tytler has found the idea, a way out to contest from Delhi—two seats lost even before the polls! My personal hunch is that Gandhi may have some serious developmental ideas, come clean, look at honesty as a virtue; but will the party, so used to ills, ever allow him to take charge? In any case, he is inexperienced to handle such a position.
That leaves us with Modi. From the very beginning I have been apprehensive about the NDA pulling it to the 272 mark and they are bound to look at regional parties—the TMC, the DMK, the TRS, to reach the magic figure. Even though his theatricals are becoming quite boring, his speeches are lacking substance, his popularity rating is dropping, he is still the man on whom people are placing their hopes. Will he deliver? Assuming he has the best plans and intentions, how much will Nagpur allow him to take on? How much will the Advanis and the Joshis back him up? How much can we trust and depend on his chief campaign manager, Nitin Gadkari? With the industry and business backing Modi to the hilt, will we again see a Ambani run India? Will the minorities be in safe hands? Will corruption really go (again reference point is Gadkari and their ilks)? Or will we be replacing the devil with the deep sea? So far, his famous ‘bhaiyon aur behenon’ has not addressed these issues. They have been more attacking a Nitish or the Lefts; not to talk of Shehzada. This is all rhetoric, not talking of a blue print.
I also have another fear—a fear from Modi’s point of view. If they have to cobble a majority by allying with a Jayalalitha, or a Naveen Patnaik, or a Mamata, Rama and the rest of the 33 million members of Hindu pantheon help Modi!
BJP will have to score out of Gujarat, Maharashtra, UP, Punjab, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, and as of now that should bring in Modi, never mind the aftermath.
Do we have another scenario? The experts who are invited by the channels are highly opiniated and I for one cannot accept their view points as serious judgements. They are more interested pushing their “I think…” than providing an honest answer. At this stage (the elections dates have just been announced) we are seeing a NDA+ in power after June with UPA+ in the Opposition and a Third Front/AAP acting as rabble rousers. Are we missing the woods from the trees?
In choosing Modi (and not BJP), we are. Just that we have no other option. The Congress led UPA have done such damages to the national fabric, the country is on a any port in a storm mode. And all said and done, Modi has emerged as the best port. My take is that once you dock in that port, this TINA factor is going to make us unhappy sooner than we think. The TMC success in Bengal is likely to be repeated.
However, my gut feel is that whatever figures are being predicted for the NDA will keep dropping as we get closer to the polls. In other words, I don’t see NDA going beyond 180 and that is where the cookies will crumble. One of my reasoning is based on likely in-fighting that will break the BJP rath yatra. Modi is losing steam. The poll predictions will get the current losers change their strategy and they are likely to move up by a few seats here and there. Already, the TMC list has proved to be most uninspiring. TMC’s plan of winning all 42 seats in Bengal will not happen.
What I am opining is a natural process. And finally, never again should the nation depend on a one-man band. The party is always above the—though BJP, Congress and all other parties, including AAP seem to overlook it.
That is the crisis we are consciously heading towards. Soon.
A ha! Look at the mood of the nation. Modi is the next PM. To hell with BJP. Modi, Modi.
And what if BJP cant cobble up an alliance and get those 50 seats they are looking for (well, with Kejriwal having nothing better to do, Mr Spoilsport may increase it to 80 and oops!)? The answer is still Modi!!
At this point of time, Rahul Gandhi shaking hands with porters and such other people he wouldn’t bother about by the time the son (surya) rises the next day will still not make the Congress cross the three figure mark. No matter how much Congress may scream that they are a party who follow strong “democratic” traditions, they have a time tested tradition of “electing” a “Gandhi” to lead them and yesterday I heard Anand Sharma giving an example of how they “choose” Sonia Gandhi to lead the party. Sharma ji, sharminda na karen. Hum logon mein kuch toh deemak hai. Sab ke sab gadhey toh nahi hain. The way the then Congress President Sitaram Kesri had thrown in his topi (literaly) at Sonia Gandhi’s feet should have given the party some sharam, but never mind. When the late Jitender Prasad contested Sonia Gandhi, the Congress establishment pulled out all the stops to ensure that Prasad loses. So don’t always use RSS as the stick to beat Modi. If BJP goes by the diktat of Nagpur, Congress goes by the diktat of 10 Janpath. ( I am told, 10 Janpath does not necessarily mean Sonia Gandhi. It actually means Ahmed Patel).
Assuming for a moment that RSS has pushed Modi, as of now it seemed to have been the Yehi hai Right Choice, Baby. A ha!
Whether he will become the PM or not will finally depend on the sauda the Gujju bhai will do at the market place (like offering Railways to TMC and writing off of all loans to Bengal, acting as the peace maker between the Thakrey cousins, giving Omar Abdullah the mild push he is looking for) but one thing is certain, he has stirred the nation. Wherever you go, it is Modi. So be it. But here comes a rider.
What ever will happen to BJP?
While I am sure RSS have thought of it more than we have one thing is certain, BJP is heading towards becoming Modi dependant and the individual is growing to be bigger than the organisation. For NaMo chanters it may not matter. Some of them have clearly told me to hell with Godhra and to hell with Ram mandir, it is Modi, Modi. But at one stage it will matter to the organisation. Vajpayee was also bigger than the party but being a traditionalist, he played to rules and he had checks and balances built around him in the likes of Advani and Joshi. Modi has none. He is a horse running away after throwing the jockey off the saddle. And, I am sure Modi knows this better, not everyone in BJP is happy with the success and popularity of Modi. In the next few years we are destined to see some blood bath shows within the BJP. Already there are hushed rumours about Chauhan’s reservations and not everyone in BJP is happy with Amit Shah running UP. If poll predictions are right and BJP scores 50 seats in UP, Shah will be the next horse to throw the jockey off the saddle (no, he wont. He cant afford to throw off Modi)
One of the reasons this country is increasingly suffering for the past 65 + years is due to the major ruling party having a leader who dwarfed the party. First Nehru, then Indira Gandhi, then Rajiv Gandhi and then many other Gandhis (and even a Vadra!). Modi thankfully does not have a dynasty but power in the hands of an individual can become counter productive as individuals have a tendency to run personal agendas (read Adani, for instance). Modi fans will step in and say, well, he ran a ministry in Gujarat for 15 years. A ha, again. Take out Modi from Gujarat and BJP will have to work very hard to retain power. My point is supported by his speeches wherein he uses the Gujarat model as an example of development. That example is tailor made to suit a Modi. It is truly his success story, not that of his party.
Actually, across the country one aspiration is common. Congress has to go. And the way they are handling their affairs, Modi is enjoying the cake walk. The way Rahul Gandhi is handling himself, Modi is smiling. The way Congress spokespersons like Sanjay Jha, Manish Tewari, Renuka Chaudhuri (a ha! again) are making a mess of the party on various TV channels, some of the BJP spokespersons may be thinking of retiring. So, Modi as PM or not, Congress is nowhere for sure. With a strange agreement between the mythical Third Front partners Modi will have takers if the NDA reach their magic 220. The Third Front deal is that in the event of their not coming to power, the constituents will have the choice to back BJP or Congress. The Third front will never come to power and NDA will have a huge basket to choose from. We may come to a stage where only the Left and AAP will be the real opposition.
Finally, Arvind. A BJP backer friend told me that while they are with AAP as far as hunting Congress is concerned (no, they are not, in many ways the lead political parties are twins) they are angry with Arvind as he may eat in to their vote share. To them I say, there is no need to panic. Don’t look for vote share, look for seat numbers. And if Arvind and AAP do any damage, it will further decimate the Congress. Now that the Delhi circus is over, claws will be out.
As for all Modi supporters (as of now everyone, it seems) please don’t let the euphoria over take the maxim that an individual is not above the organisation. I know even if you agree with me, you will nod your head and then go back to Modi! Modi!!
As we move in to the New Year, there are two issues as starters:
One, the Congress Party is about to anoint Rahul Gandhi as the Prime Ministerial candidate and two, Narendra Modi’s stock is showing signs of sinking. In both cases, their respective parties don’t matter. The Congress needs the Nehru–Gandhi family to survive and BJP, the party and Modi, are at a total variance.
There are other dynamics as well.
A kind of a social democratic party has moved into position and is drawing the imagination of the people, the regional parties are getting ready to play a bigger role than ever. Even the Left, since written off, may just play a key role. The rules of the game will however be set by the AAP.
I am not far off the mark. Already, the fear of AAP has made the Haryana CM start making noises about cutting power tariffs and Sanjay Nirupam is also demanding a similar cut of power tariff in Maharashtra. In fact, without even the AAP asking for it, the establishment is running when they could have crawled. Suddenly, everyone is posturing on the corruption issue. The Westland helicopter deal has been scrapped, Vir Bhadra Singh has rushed to Delhi to defend himself. BJP, however, is silent on the Yeddurappa issue, but Dr Harshvardhan wants AAP to put Sheila Dikshit behind the bars, even by delaying the water and power issue. Either way, the AAP is stealing their thunder. AAP is now talking of contesting in all the Lok Sabha seats and is certainly looking good for Haryana. Non-political people from entertainment and corporate are publicly joining the AAP. Remo Fernandes and the former CFO of Infosys have already made the move.
Whichever way you look at it, the people of India may be in for a good time for the next six months. There will some amount of cleanliness in governance in order to win brownie points, and of course votes, while we may just be free from routine political gibberish and if I may use the word, blackmail, as both Congress and BJP will go down on their knees to form the next ministry.
It is a foregone conclusion that neither the BJP, nor the Congress will be able to get an absolute majority on their own. Worse, if AAP decide to field candidates in just 250 seats, they may hardly win any, but play havoc in terms of vote split. That may make the anticipated results go haywire. At this point of time, the BJP is strong in 4/5 states and though you don’t calculate Lok Sabha seats by adding up the seats in which the party is in power (we have had too many cases of people voting for someone else for the Lok Sabha, depending on the national issues and other factors), but I certainly don’t see a number of regional parties like the BJD, TMC, AGP, TDP choosing sides and it may not be difficult to see another Deve Gowda type warm the PM’s seat for a change. Which means I am ruling out both Rahul Gandhi and Modi.
Rahul looks all of a young man who is about to succeed his father in business, but he does not give the vibes of an Anand Mahindra, or a Rajiv Bajaj, least of all a Mukesh Ambani. He is surrounded by an equally inexperienced bunch of advisors, or old school mentors like Digvijay Singh. Some of my friends inside the Congress Party have also told me of a palace conspiracy (benign type), wherein they feel that Sonia Gandhi’s team may not, in fact don’t, want Rahul to come to power fearing a change in the balance of power. Congress also has too many PM aspirants and even if they may talk publicly of supporting the North Korean style of succession, they will be looking at all opportunities to khiskaw young Rahul. Any way, no one listens to him. I suspect he has good, clean ideas and if left to himself, he may do better. He talks of being the architect of the Lokpal Bill, but his party admits to a Madhu Koda and also go easy on Mayawati. Lalu is a natural ally.
Modi will be the bigger disappointment. Between then and now, his shine is fading. He is an exemplary speaker, holds his audience spell-bound, but seems to have overplayed his card. He lacks humility and as much as we want to hear him share his plans about our neighbours, he has been very petty in targeting 10 Janpath. No, he is not Prime Ministerial candidate. He is arrogant and while he must be Top of the Pops, I don’t hear his domestic policies, foreign affair policy, not even an AAP type agenda. Sadly, he is proving to be a gas-bag. If Modified Indians are to be believed, Gen V K Singh will be his Defence Minister and Dr Ketan Desai, Health Minister. I am sure this is all a figment of the imagination, but honestly, do we see the BJP as a “team”? Or Modi as a one-man band? Worse, many of the CMs who have won clearly want him to stay out of their state. He could not swing it in Delhi. I have not heard him opine on Yeddurappa joining his party. In many ways he has taken the Congress route of building statutes and appearing in ads. He is a substitute, not an alternative.
So, we have a heavy duty 2014. Where will the economy go, no one knows. Even experts don’t. A year after Nirbhaya we have had a case of a girl being gang raped by two different gangs. The Samajwadi Party hosts a gala New Year’s party after giving marching orders to the residents camping in Shamli. Bollywood goes gaga with their financial success, even grossing 100 crores is now chicken feed.
I have been meaning to vent my thoughts and feelings on the AAP ever since they won those 28 seats on December 8, but the subsequent developments made me hold back. All these days my friends outside of Delhi NCR have been asking me questions, some difficult ones as to how this development actually affects the political situation in the country; will the AAP form the Government; will they take help from the Congress or BJP, and if they do, how will they manage; can they keep their promises — in fact, everything we in Delhi NCR have been talking about.
Today, they will actually be taking oath and that too at the Ramlila Grounds. So?
This is my take.
First of all, people who think AAP is a joke must accept that they are in self-denial. Organised political parties like Congress, BJP, SP and such other alphabets, with years of governing experience between them, have not been able to digest that there is a party like AAP. Their supporters too have accepted living with corruption, accepted that this is the way of life. And that no one can change it. It is the difficult of accepting the impossible, no matter how much you may have wished. The people are not to be blamed. For the past 60+ years, the political system, starting with the Congress, have actually conditioned us to accept the system. The system has actually manipulated us and all other parties have followed. The Left, despite their public posturing, also did the same which led to their defeat in Bengal. They too fell in line and became another part of this system. The “isms” got dropped somewhere in between.
From the seventees, the non-Congress political parties took a leaf from the Congress manual. Playing of the caste card, minority card and worst, the religion card. In the process, the Dalits, the Thakurs, the Brahmins and all religious groups were made to feel that they were outside the mainstream. It did not matter if the party had a workable manifesto, what mattered was the socio-religious status of the candidate, irrespective of the person’s ability, moral values and credentials. What the political parties did not realise was that they were dividing the country further. Today, we are even more divided than we were in 1947!
The seventees also saw the flush of money power coming into play. In 1968, the Congress Party in Bengal, who were unseated for the first time in 1967, under direct orders from Ms Indira Gandhi to destabilise the political gambit, put up a stooge Ashu Ghosh and through him paid out to get the first United Front Government, replacing them with a puppet Government, the PDF, I think it was called. That it failed is another story, but there was a lot of talk about the kind of money Ashu Ghosh had spent. Today, Ashu Ghosh’s budget would look like petty change.
Money and muscle go together and doing des seva turned in to a business platform. Criminals, thugs, crooks, rapists, murderers filled up the Parliament and state assemblies, in turn filling their own coffers. The babus did the same, so did the peons!
The AAP, and I keep telling my friends who vehemently criticise them, are no fools. They actually turned the des seva into an asset and milked it. They took the real meaning of democracy and actually practiced it. Voters of at least 28 constituencies in Delhi believed in them, while at least in 4 other constituencies, AAP candidates lost with very narrow margins — which goes to show that they were not very much off the mark when they predicted that they may win the mandate (The research agency which gave them 6 seats should seriously pull down their shutters). The political and industrial class had given them a weapon: corruption, and with the whole country fed up of the happenings, especially in Delhi, they used the ‘transparency’ card to win over the people. Rahul Gandhi may have gone public saying that the Congress would like to follow the AAP manual, but soon after his speech at a business conclave, his Government in Maharashtra threw out the Adarsh Commission report and even in Karnataka, the Congress Government has turned into a travel agency, organising freebies for the MLAs in form of expensive foreign trips to exotic locations in Australia, New Zealand and South America in the name of “study tours”. Rahul Gandhi has since not been heard again! There is a Bengali saying, “Kartar paadey gondho nei,” roughly meaning that the boss’ farts don’t smell.
Some facts:
Modi did not “wave” for BJP in Delhi. Actually, I doubt if it happened for them in Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh, even though the party leaders may give him the credit. It was good governance of Dr Raman Singh, Chauhan and the false façade of Ghelot that got them the votes.
AAP’s success was not just an anti-Congress vote. It was a vote against corruption cutting across party lines, a vote against the Establishment. BJP may not agree, but they should closely look at the vote margins.
Possibly, and just possibly, people of India through Delhi were challenging the established political system and this may soon spread to all over the country.
What followed after the results were out was shock and disbelief. Not just for the Congress, but also for BJP. It was denial all through. Collectively, they had mocked at AAP and their agenda. They could never accept that they have been out-manoeuvred and beaten at their own game. Little did they realise that in mocking and being overtly critical about AAP, they were actually rubbishing the very people who voted for them. The tone was “You made a mistake buddy, now we will see to it that you pay for it.”
With a hung assembly in the making and a re-poll on the cards, the establishment went into a frenzy, more so I reckon, with the fear of being completely upstaged by the AAP in the re-poll. So they decided to make an unique move: support AAP! As expected, AAP refused. Then began the tamasha. AAP was accused of shirking responsibility. Wah re! BJP, with the largest number promptly declined to accept the challenge and charged AAP for having failed the people and abuse the mandate.
AAP made a clever move: they wrote to both the major parties and spelt out their terms of taking their support. BJP did not even reply; Congress seized the opportunity and agreed to give unconditional support. Well, so we believe, as a large number of Congress workers (Do they have any? Everyone seems to be an official, karyakarta as they are called) went on the rampage (typically Congress) and opposed the decision. Perhaps 10 Janpath told them to pipe down. They needed a straw to clutch.
In accepting Congress support, even if by going back to the people again, AAP became a point of another attack. Speaker after speaker from the BJP condemned AAP for having taken the support of the enemy. Why, this was a mandate against the Congress and how can AAP take the help of Congress? Why, I ask, could not have BJP lived up to their promise of supporting AAP? Damned if you do, damned if you don’t!
So have the AAP walked into a trap? The Congress is a devil of an ally, if we just recall their role during the Charan Singh and Chandrasekhar era. They are unreliable, unscrupulous and don’t believe in any commitment. But this time around, they have walked into a checkmate. With 2014 coming up, I would love to see how they pull the rug, or for that matter vote against the pro-poor, anti-corruption agenda of the AAP. If they do, they can kiss goodbye to all their seats in the Lok Sabha elections. And any mid-term poll in Delhi. However, the Congress Party don’t decide on basis of collective leadership. They will go by what they are told to do by 10 Janpath. Just that no one in the party seems to take RaGa seriously any more. They have turned him into a mukhota and disregard him. Many consider him to be a liability. But Congress is capable of committing hara kiri. The process is already on. Personally, I think they will mess it up, specially when AAP start looking in to the CWG and other corruption points.
It will be better. For AAP to really run their agenda, they need a total mandate. Just that their efforts, even if they are thawarted by the Congress and BJP, may well help them to come back with a better result.
So far, the AAP have outwitted and outsmarted the established political norms and that is what is hurting both the BJP and Congress the most. They are setting a different set of rules, norms they will find hard to match.
Having lost out in round one and two, now the establishment is crying hoarse about the AAP agenda. Impossible! Unrealistic! False promises! To them I wish to submit that having read AAP strategy wrong all this while, have some patience. They are smarter that all of you put together and I am sure they have thought out their strategy before making their manifesto. In case they fail, all established political parties will have a cake walk in the next election and Kejriwal will be back to their barracks. I think those who are criticising have not really read the fine print. Instead of screaming “700 litres! 700 litres!” just wait and see what they do. Don’t throw the baby with the bathwater. Let us agree that they have not gone through all the trouble just for a few chuckles!
The problem is, most of us are not willing to change. We are not willing accept a new order (which should have been the order any way). Let us give them a time slot. Let us look forward to a free nation. We owe it to our next generation. After years, we may just about have a people’s government. Not just for, of, but importantly, by the people.
As for me, I just hope that AAP does not loose out to the dirty tricks department of the BJP and Congress. They will all be judged by this Aap ki Adalat!
It’s almost over. A few days more and the last vote for the dress rehearsal for the General Elections of 2014 will be cast; all TV news channels will start the speculations game, give their opinion, comments, and the fixed set of panelists, also referred to as ‘Experts’ will start crowding the various shows, many of them taking on more than a channel together. By the afternoon of 8th December, we will all know whether it is Modi or Rahul Baba who have made the cut and if there is any room for a party like AAP. If the results lean more towards BJP, then the Congress will go into a huddle and vice-versa.
The problem will be if the BJP gets themselves cornered, for it will be read as a scar on their PM nominee, Narendra Modi. Guns and knives will be out, and the BJP will do everything to decimate themselves by the time the General Elections are announced. That, to my mind, is the real issue.
It is quite apparent that the BJP is a house divided on the Modi factor. So far, the Gujarat man has actually led a one-man band and while all the states who are going/gone for state elections have dependent totally on the Modi euphoria, there is an apparent “distancing” by the not so happy BJP leaders – in fact some may actually be hoping that the magic fails. Either the sulking leaders have not consciously backed up Modi real time or they have been marginalized by the man himself. Either way, it is bad for the BJP. True, as I had stated in my earlier blog that Modi seems to be the flavour of the season, I had also expressed caution that the BJP may not get the numbers and the Third Front (without being a legal entity) may actually turn up the largest numbers; but the majority of them are unlikely to support the NDA.
What is important for the BJP is to show their strength, unity and communicate, by body language or otherwise, that they are together and are fully supportive of Modi. I don’t see the faces of a Jaitley or a Swaraj, or any such top BJP leaders sharing the stage with Modi or even talking about his success. All they are doing is providing lip service which is making matters even worse.
Sushma Swaraj (L) and Arun Jaitley (R)
Modi’s glitter, on the other hand, is fading. His slips in quoting from history and economics and the language he is using is not becoming of a future Prime Minister. He needs to be a little more careful with his choice of words and get his data in order. His style of taking on the Gandhis and the Congress Party may be perfect in playing to the gallery and the crowd may be loving it, but it could also be pushing the fence sitters to the other side. No one in the BJP seems to be bothered, or perhaps Modi could not give a damn to good advise. The latter is a problem which can compound later, more if he does become the PM.
So what will happen if the BJP do not get the act together? Well, as they say, people deserve the government they choose.
PS: Just a wild guess, I can’t predict how many seats the AAP will get in Delhi, but Sheila Dikshit may give the BJP a good run for their money. She, and I am not saying the Congress Party, may just get the same amount of seats as the BJP, if not edge them out slightly. The vote banks in Delhi are pretty loyal, and the fight will get very tough with the AAP jumping in on national sentiments.
Well, if you do, keep it to yourself. Don’t discuss it with any research agency. If you have opined against the Congress Party, chances are the researchers have been paid for by “interested parties” and I assume, you too may have been paid in turn. Which means all research agencies are corrupt, all research methodologies are “unscientific” and the project is paid for by “vested interests”.
Congress pointing a finger at corrupt practices. Pot calling the kettle black.
A few years ago, Nazma Heptullah, then carrying the Congress flag had humiliated a professional representing a research agency, who was defending the Exit Poll they had conducted (which showed the Congress Party in a poor light) on a TV Channel by dismissing the findings conducted for a “…few rupees.” Well, Ms Heptullah, even now, years after you changed your allegiance, the situation has not changed much. The professionals work for a living and they have a price tag. Unlike the political class, nothing comes for free for them. And they make a sincere effort, they actually work to earn a living, not manage their kitchen by wheeling-dealing and scamming (oops, is that a new word?) like the political class, and yet they actually have to earn a few rupees to pay for the pricey onions and as of today, even potatoes!!
For years we have noticed that when the wind does not blow in favor of a political party, they have been very vehement in declaring the polls invalid. Since the days of NDTV, a few stock words have been overused in discarding the results. The same words have been borrowed by other parties and every one assured that the ground reality will be different. Very rarely though, has it gone the other way. I remember Dr Pronnoy Roy once doing a post election review, and he admitted that they had totally gone off the mark for a particular state. It was an honest admission.
This year too it is not any different. This time the Congress is in the denial mode. They have cried foul and will not send anyone to the panel discussions on TV channels. And thank God for that! Imagine Manish Tewari in his now famous monotone (and arrogance) talking, talking and talking about the polls being rigged and King Diggy making ridiculous “Diggyspeaks”.
Government Opinion
When the Congress Party makes an appeal to the Election Commission requesting for banning such “Opinion Polls” (well, the BJP may follow suit tomorrow if some channel runs a poll showing Modi is on the decline), who do they actually attack? The researchers? The media? Or the people of India?
Having spent years in the business of advertising, I am familiar with the research practice. In the past, our agency’s research wing have been assigned with such tasks and I have been extremely privileged to have worked closely with Ramesh Thadani, Monoranjan Dutta and Arup Roy. Opinion Polls are not the same as doing a brand research, it needs special tools and the people who have done the assignment, for say CNN-IBN or other channels, have had the requisite capability and experience. (Hello, hello, Yogendra Yadav was not a part of the project!) Am I to believe that all the channels have been paid off by the BJP? Or people who have a “vested interest” in letting the BJP come to power have opened their purse strings? Are Pronnoy Roys and Rajdeep Sardesais a purchasable commodity? Does the Congress Party think, in their collective wisdom, that he has no sense of responsibility?
And if it is a money game, they have enough money stacked from all the scams put together, a part of which could have been “invested” in influencing public opinion.
Public opinion cannot be bought from a shop. And every research agency has their credibility to maintain. No research agency worth their salt will ever blow it away for doing a one time research, no matter how much money is dished out. Do the political parties understand that?
Actually, none of the political parties are interested in “the public”, forget their opinion. I doubt they believe in democracy (what is it, any way?) For the Congress, you serve 10 Janpath. For BJP, you serve the RSS Headquarters at Nagpur. DMK serves the Karunanidhi family. National Conference serves the Abdullahs. SP serve the Mulayam- Akhilesh combination. Mayawati, Jayalalitha, Chandra Babu Naidu serve themselves. You could add to the list, but leave out the poor Left. They serve an eternally non-existent Third Front.
Time we cast our vote and wait to see if the predictions have come true. 8th December is less than a month away.
Last week I was returning from Manesar in a bus and after the conductor had attended to all the passengers and issued the tickets, he started a conversation with the passengers on the prospect of Modi becoming the next Prime Minister. This was a day or two after Modi had addressed a massive rally in Delhi and I was keen to hear of the impact that he may have made. Once the subject was broached, almost every body joined in. “Everybody” here were factory workers, some farmers and some migrant construction workers. This was real India and I got in to the mood to be the silent observer and hear them out.
It was Modi all the way. Not just that, the conductor almost took on the role of becoming the chief advocate for Modi, taking center stage. Even though he blew up some data about Modi’s performance in Gujarat, it did not matter. The tone of his conviction and the wholesale agreement by the passengers left no doubt in my mind as to which way the wind was blowing. It was Modi and Modi all the way.
A few days later I was talking to a friend, a retired banker who had held very senior positions and was totally clued on to the business and finance matters, had told me very clearly that it was not just the case of the aam janta wanting Modi, the industry as a whole had decided for him.
Yesterday I was invited by a Rotary Club to address the members and as we munched paneer pakoras and harabhara kababs, accompanied by hot chai, the discussion slowly veered to Modi. The elite group, most of whom I have known personally for years, were clear in their choice. It was Modi.
Across board, as on date, it is Modi. And suddenly everything about him has a sense of an aura. The way he speaks, raises issues, walks, talks….he seems to be just the messiah we were waiting for. You don’t have to study pre poll studies, but the Congress Prime Ministerial nominee, Prince Rahul is a total wash out. After the usual media brouhaha, his much theatrical “Nonsense” is slowly turning in to the ridiculous.
“If we can forget that Sonia Gandhi is Italian, we can also forget Godhra,” someone had told me. “I know it is not the best solution, but we don’t have a choice. UPA has been a disaster. Everyone is corrupt. People are now talking openly about how 2G money had made its way to 10 Janpath,” my friend added.
Fair enough. But here is the catch. Will Modi’s party get the numbers? No. Not a case of popular mandate but just that BJP is not physically present across the states. They have no electoral presence in most of the NE states, Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu. Even political calculations in Delhi and Andhra are not clear. We will have to wait for the state elections in Chattisgarh and MP to understand the tone and mood though state elections are not always the best guide tracks for analyzing Lok Sabha polls. Yes, they can give us a fair indication.
In my earlier blogs I had talked about the role of the Regional Parties who could either make or break Modi’s ambitions. And I say Modi in the singular since his party is not united in working for his success. In fact, Modi is a lone ranger in his party, barring the support of a Rajnath Singh here and a Gadkari there. And of course, the entire machinery of Gujarat. At this point of time, he has turned in folk lore. And we have to grant it to him that he has done it single handed. He has done the magic of getting the people behind him. It does not matter that much of his success story in managing Gujarat has not been properly presented. For example:
In 10 years 60,000 small scale industries have been closed down.
* (source: Director, Department of Economics and Statistics, Government of Gujarat.2011-12)•
Gujarat ranks 5TH in F.D.I.(source: Director, Department of Economics and Statistics, Government of Gujarat. & Report by reserve bank of India.2011-12 )•
The state’s total debt was less than Rs 10,000 crore when the BJP first came to power in Gujarat in 1995. Gujarat’s actual debt has mounted from Rs 45,301 crore in 2001-02 when Modi took over to Rs 1,38,978 crore on December 30, 2012. The debt would mount to Rs 2,07,695 crore as per the state government’s budget estimates by 2015-16.
* (source: Director, Department of Economics and Statistics, Government of Gujarat. & Gujarat assembly question hours2011-12 )•
Gujarat is at 8th position in agricultural growth. Gujarat is never achieved 10% growth in Agriculture sector. As per Government of Gujarat’s own statistics from year 2005-2006 to 2010-2011, growth in GSDP in Agriculture and Allied sector is 3.44% only-not double digit or 10%.
*(source: Gujarateconomics and statistics department, govt. of Gujarat And Times Of India http:// timesofindia.ind ia……@ArchiveDigger)•
In Gujarat VAT on fertilizer is 5% it is highest in India
* (Source: Ministry of agriculture, Gujarat, 2010-11)•
In Gujarat 26 districts have 225 blocks in which 57 are dark zone blocks.
* (Source: Ministry of agriculture, Gujarat And annual report Narmada nigam,2011-12)•
455885 Applications are pending for agricultural power connection as on March,2011
* (Source: Ministry of agriculture, Gujarat,2011-12)•
Close to half of the states children under the age of 5 (44.6 %) are known to be suffering from malnutrition. 70 per cent are said to be anemic while 40 per cent are underweight.
* (Source: planning commission report-2012-13)
In 8 districts and 3 Talukas of Gujarat, 2494 teachers posts are vacant.
In 4 dist of Gujarat, approximately 978 schools are running with only 1 or 2 teachers.
* (Source: RTI filed by Vinod Pandya GOG reply to RTI, 2011-12)
* (Source: A report by NGO Ahmedabad Womens Assosiation Gujarat-AWAG-(TIMES NEWS NETWORK, 25 th Jan 2013 )•
The Deputy Speaker’s post is left vacant by the Gujarat Government for a decade.
* (As per article 178 of Indian constitution, it is compulsory)•
Assembly runs on an average for 30-32 days a year.•
No Lokayukta appointed since last 10 years.•
Gujarat has organized 3716 Employment festival” as per Government of Gujarat own record 10 lacks educated youth are unemployed and a total of 30 lakh people are unemployed.
* (Source: NASSO report,GOI,2011-12)•
NSSO data show that in Gujarat , growth in employment has dropped to almost zero in the past 12 years
A recent CAG review on accounts of the States is an eye-opener when it comes to Gujarat, the latter’s high claims notwithstanding. Allegedly there are Rs16,706.99 crore worth of financial and land allotment irregularities with resultant negative impact on delivery on economic and development fronts
* (Source: CAG report 2011-12)
This data will not make sense to any one who is supporting Modi. And except the Congress Party workers, Left, Left intellectuals, Dr Amartya Sen, a large section of minorities, parties like DMK, AAP, etc everyone is supporting Modi!
Actually he is the best choice by default. He has been gifted to the Indian voters by an incompetent, inefficient and ineffective Congress led UPA. You may not support Modi, but you cannot deny that during the last 7 years the nation has been misruled. Looted. (Corruption is a weak word). The problem with the Congress Party is that they are hamstrung by the dynasty syndrome. The only reason they are perpetually in the 10 Janpath mode is simply because the Gandhis are the only reason for their existence. And a large number of them are totally convinced that Rahul will be a disaster. The Congress party actually has no agenda barring some window dressing strategies, most of which are designed to catch votes, and almost all of them have backfired. FDI in retail (the biggest retail chain, Walmart link up with Bharti has turned sour), the much hyped Adhaar has just gone someplace else and Direct Cash idea has been a no starter. Many of the hard core Congress men are openly revolting against the diktats. Rao Inderjit Singh is one.
Rahul Gandhi is no match for Modi. It’s a case of a walkover.
I have just one fear for the future. Modi becoming a Prime Minister will not happen through BJP numbers. It can only happen if Regional parties join in. Most coalition partners are all fence sitters and turn whichever the money blows.
Will we have a Modi regime with a Sharad Pawar, a Paswan, a BSP, a TMC? Will Modi be able to tame a Mamata or, a Pawar?
That will be the real challenge Modi will have to face.
As of today, the bus conductor to construction workers to the urban elite are rooting for Modi.
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