The Signs of Four

The Contenders
The Contenders

Sign # 1

The Indian National Congress. Lost.

Even before the match started. In the final analysis it turned out to be a party full of darpoks, shirkers, escapists, liars. I say liar since all these years they said they were at the beck and call of their “owners”, the Gandhis, and are now refusing to take calls from 10 Janpath, per chance they are told to contest. P Chidambaram, the man most people hold responsible for the economic debacle (and according to many others, the person who controlled the stock market) has fled — both from his responsibility and his commitment. I am sure he wants a “safe seat” via Rajya Sabha.  His son says, “Daddy said to smile!” Atta boy, Karthi!! Manish Tewari, the monotone speaker par excellence who crafted the Bharat Nirman campaign has had health issues and does not want to contest from Ludhiana. What he is doing is what school children do before the exam day. Fall sick. His case may be genuine, but we people see nothing good about the UPA. Poor Mani Shankar Aiyyar. He has had to prove his loyalty to the Gandhi family by opting out of the Rajya Sabha and return to Mayuram. Poor Ghulam Nabi Azad, Ambica Soni (oye hoye, I thought she was a discarded colleague), Amrinder Singh have all been coaxed and cajoled by 10 Janpath to be brave in the face of adversity. Even Anand Sharma is looking elsewhere when his name is being called out. MMS is busy packing up his boriya bistar, he will soon be occupying the bungalow vacated by Sheila Dikshit.

I had mentioned in one my earlier blogs that people close to Sonia Gandhi do not want Rahul Gandhi to come to power as it will mean transfer of the power base from Team Sonia to Team Rahul. Fact is, poor Rahul, and I say this with some genuine truth, has been left to fight for himself. He is doing his best, mouthing good intentions; but he does not seem to have any takers even within his party. His Unca Diggy is still smiling, waiting to be named the sacrificial lamb as the Congress candidate from Varanasi. As of now, a Kalmadi is sulking (what cheek, he had suggested that if he is dropped, the party may nominate his wife, if not his daughter! Constituencies are becoming personal fiefdom of some politicians, referred to in Hindi as ‘baap ka raaj’), Ashok Chavan is still hanging, but another scam-under-investigation minister, Pawan Bansal has been gifted Chandigarh. Sheila Dikshit has been moved up to a Constitutional Post so that she is insulated from the CWG dust. Very honest party, indeed. Also, as of today, Shinde continues to have tea with 2G accused, Mr Balwa, and accuses the former Home Secretary, R K Sinha of speaking bakwas now that Mr Sinha is a BJP candidate.

The status of INC, who are not even finding candidates to field is indeed a sad commentary. Where is the party discipline? Where are the grand ideas of Rahul Gandhi? Where is the party? Have they left everything to the mercy of Sanjay Jha? Why do we see so little of their spokesperson brigade led by Jayanti Natarajan? Party work? And I guess like Jayanti Natarajan, loud mouth Renuka Chaudhuri would also like to return to party work. Yes, they should all return to party work — except that to me, the Indian National Congress will soon be relegated to a foot note in India’s history.

 

Sign #2

One thing is certain, no matter how much we speak of our great democratic traditions, the way politicians are changing their jerseys, I think the people need to stand up and seek total reforms. Every day, nay hour, a news break tells us Mr X of so and so party (read Congress) has joined so and so party (read BJP). And BJP is happily accepting these Congressmen. Satpal Maharaj, Jagadmba Pal, Col Sonaram…it looks like a parade. Even N K Singh, the man who was the principal advisor to Nitish Kumar all these years and was credited with the Bihar Developmental Blueprint is also looking for a way out. Suddenly these deserters find that the party they ‘served’ was giving them a cold shoulder, that it was turning dictatorial, the High Command was “not listening to them” (read, ‘they did not give me/my followers the seats I wanted’). Digvijay Singh may be on record in saying that BJP is engineering these defections, but did these deserters go through a spell of realization just after EC declared the election dates? I suppose till yesterday they were all in awe and admiration of their High Command (read, 10 Janpath).  With no respect to the political class, you don’t serve your High Command (irrespective of the party). You serve the people. That is just the single reason why you are in the business.

I can understand people opting out of the party they served for their personal agendas — but how come the BJP has had an open door policy? Isn’t this the party with a difference? Isn’t this the party which is promising to deliver us from evils? Development? Governance? Ram Rajya? Free us of corruption? Communalism (hic!)?

With the likes of Yeddurappa? Sriramulu? Reddy Brothers? Under the garb of ‘Winnability’? Not sure, are you? These guys will make the difference? As will Amit Shah, who is not even allowed to enter Gujarat?

BJP is not sure of a sweep. Else they would not have run the winnability program. And if they were looking for a sweep, their slips have shown up so badly that may do some rethinking.

Let us do a reality check. Here we have had a Congress led-UPA Government, which by all accounts have sunk the nation. Particularly, corruption. There we have a BJP, the other large party, almost like a port in storm, who come forward and say let us take over, we will clean up and give the economy buoyancy. Fair deal. In fact, the UPA has laid it out for them on a platter. What they should have done is to have come forward as a party, talked about the success of their state leaders like Shivraj Patil, Narendra Modi, Dr Raman Singh, showcased a team full of identifiable and respected politicians like Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, backed by stalwarts like Advani, Jaswant Singh and told the nation, we are ready, bring us to power. In the process they should also have collectively decided to make Advanis of the world as Peetamahas, what they call in corporate circles ‘Chairman Emeritus’, and put them on a pedestal, sought their blessings.

What they did was just the reverse. A group of four, led by Rajnath Singh actually hijacked the party and upfronted a Narendra Modi, who till the other day was the face of communal violence. We would like to accept it or not, he has not been cleared of the Godhra riots and what with charges against his own ministers (one of them has been sentenced to a 28 year term), it is difficult to accept that he is squeaky clean. Throughout his campaign, he has not, at least to me, spelt out his vision of the ‘new’ India. Look hard, he has taken on the Congress, Rahul Gandhi, the Left (and parties who they know will never ever join them), economic downtrend; but in between his Bhaiyon aur Bahenos, he has not talked about a blueprint. All he wants is a Modi-Sarkar.

Voting for individuals has always resulted in a disaster. Man who comes to my mind is Debkanta Barooah, a former Congress President for his now infamous, ‘India is Indira’. You vote for a manifesto and if you look hard, the BJP had it all ready — courtesy the UPA, of course. The BJP as a party would have been more acceptable as an alternate solution — but the Group of Four, in their wisdom, have moved to an individual, dumping the collective decision process of a party. In demolishing the party, they have created more problems within. And you can’t help it, no matter how much erudite right wing thinkers like Swapan Dasguptas try to defend — the BJP is a party split wide open.

Godhra or no Godhra, Modi is responsible for the development of Gujarat. This was another mistake committed by the Group of Four. It is not exactly true. His efforts have been as good or as bad as those of Nitish in Bihar, or Shivraj Chauhan in MP, or even Dr Raman Singh in Chattisgarh. On the hind sight, by showcasing Gujarat they have opened up the Pandora’s Box. The “development” is now being defended more by Modi than opening it all up and letting people decide. Somewhere there is a lack of confidence.

To my mind they should have presented all BJP run states. It would have given more confidence to the people. The people would have felt far more comfortable in bringing them in — as a body.

Political analysts say that in the last ten years Modi has cut to size any leader and has hogged the show all to himself. Is this what he is likely to do when he becomes PM? He does have a dictatorial attitude, and right now he has the support of Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah and Nitin Gadkari. These four constitute the BJP, or whatever is left of it. And one day he will get them out, barring Shah. What and the way they did to Jaswant Singh, Haren Pathak, M M Joshi, I am sure did not leave a good taste in their own mouths. There is an open revolt which is breaking loose.

You may, dear reader, think that I am putting him down. No, I am asking you to look at issues rationally and you will know what I am talking about. Sure, go ahead and vote for Modi, but before you do that let me make you think hard for a moment and trash me in style. Not a la FB way. You may say all you are saying is fine, but what is the option? Can’t have the UPA back for the rest of our lives… Today it is not time to say “Yes, he is bad, but Congress is worse.”  But the way they are playing the winnability card (they even had that Pramod Muthalik in for a while) I am not seeing them any different from the Congress. And don’t feel very elated by Akbar having crushed Rajdeep. A piece of advise. Yell your NaMo to stay away from this man. He is more insecure than NaMo!!

Well today we don’t have an option. We are jumping into the water chanting ‘Har Har Modi’. The Modi brigade, led by the editor of Manusi had even said that we have a ‘sarkari Shankaracharya’!!

 

Sign # 3

You know, when channels keep showing their poll predictions that Kejriwal is a likely choice for the PM post, I feel like getting up and giving them a tight slap. Why is this question asked at all? The PM race is between Rahul Gandhi and Modi, with fringe players like Amma, Didi and perhaps even ‘dil se hain’ Mulayum. But Kejriwal? Come on! You expect a leader of a rag tag party, who is not likely to get more than 4 seats to be the PM? Why ask?

There is just a point. With a Modi (er, not BJP) in complete control, it may be to our benefit to see to it that they get about 10 seats (which even I know is a wishful thinking). At least they can act as a watch dog. They should, and would, never come to power — but they can do wonders by staying out of it. To start with, they may not have done anything worthwhile in their 49 days, but they have got the Election Commission to ask the Oil Ministry to defer notification of new gas price till general elections are completed, after taking cognizance of Arvind Kejriwal’s letter to the EC. This is just the kind of things we want them to do. The AAP really have no wish to sit in power, even though they have fielded some great candidates, including a Nobel Prize nominee. She will not win, nor will Medha Patekar, or Meera Sanyal, or Gul Panag. Sad, these are people, along with Rajmohan Gandhi (whom I have followed ever since he was into Moral Rearmament, more since West Indian opener Conard Hunte was a part of it) and Yogendra Yadav are people we want to see in the Parliament. Why have I included Gul Panag’s name? From what little I have followed, she is doing a much better job than many seasoned politicians put together. I doubt if the BJP and Congress band of stars can do the same. One TMC star (Dev) has declared that when being raped, one should enjoy it. Another, a Congress star, was kissed in public by a leader of her own party. Disgusting!

One big mistake that the AAP have done (and I am sure they had no option) was to have gone into the General Elections. With a party that has not yet been set up, structured and organized, they cannot afford to win Lok Sabha seats. So, as far as the Congress and Modi are concerned, they have no fear. An odd upset here and there may be just OK. I blame them for the Somnath Bharti episode, but not for the 49 days in power status. Again think hard — both the BJP and Congress have played games and actually come together to ease them out. No, next time I am sure they will be better organized. Once the elections are over, they will have all the time to rework on themselves. They certainly need help and that they will get.

Right now let’s keep them out of the mainframe. They have a specific task to do and let them do that. How they will fare in the future is in the realm of speculation. But they don’t seem to be a flash in the pan.

 

Sign # 4

The worst thing that has happened to out social and public life is the role of the media. Paid, Unpaid, Corporate-supported, TRP-supported, whatever; they have taken the democratic process to the pits. And to quote them back, “Hamam mein sab nangey hain.” My generation have been brought up by Girilal Jain, Frank Mores, Alfred Evan Charlton, S. Nihal Singh and today, to see the dumb charades and motivated writings both on the electronic and print media, it is more than a culture shock. The role of the media today is absolutely crass when it comes to politics and added with the social media, we have reduced political debates to a farce.

Why? The Nation wants to know! Will the media owners stand up and tell us, please?

January 1, 2014

13006
As we move in to the New Year, there are two issues as starters:

One, the Congress Party is about to anoint Rahul Gandhi as the Prime Ministerial candidate and two, Narendra Modi’s stock is showing signs of sinking. In both cases, their respective parties don’t matter. The Congress needs the Nehru–Gandhi family to survive and BJP, the party and Modi, are at a total variance.

There are other dynamics as well.

A kind of a social democratic party has moved into position and is drawing the imagination of the people, the regional parties are getting ready to play a bigger role than ever. Even the Left, since written off, may just play a key role. The rules of the game will however be set by the AAP.

I am not far off the mark. Already, the fear of AAP has made the Haryana CM start making noises about cutting power tariffs and Sanjay Nirupam is also demanding a similar cut of power tariff in Maharashtra. In fact, without even the AAP asking for it, the establishment is running when they could have crawled. Suddenly, everyone is posturing on the corruption issue. The Westland helicopter deal has been scrapped, Vir Bhadra Singh has rushed to Delhi to defend himself. BJP, however, is silent on the Yeddurappa issue, but Dr Harshvardhan wants AAP to put Sheila Dikshit behind the bars, even by delaying the water and power issue. Either way, the AAP is stealing their thunder. AAP is now talking of contesting in all the Lok Sabha seats and is certainly looking good for Haryana. Non-political people from entertainment and corporate are publicly joining the AAP. Remo Fernandes and the former CFO of Infosys have already made the move.

Whichever way you look at it, the people of India may be in for a good time for the next six months. There will some amount of cleanliness in governance in order to win brownie points, and of course votes, while we may just be free from routine political gibberish and if I may use the word, blackmail, as both Congress and BJP will go down on their knees to form the next ministry.

It is a foregone conclusion that neither the BJP, nor the Congress will be able to get an absolute majority on their own. Worse, if AAP decide to field candidates in just 250 seats, they may hardly win any, but play havoc in terms of vote split. That may make the anticipated results go haywire. At this point of time, the BJP is strong in 4/5 states and though you don’t calculate Lok Sabha seats by adding up the seats in which the party is in power (we have had too many cases of people voting for someone else for the Lok Sabha, depending on the national issues and other factors), but I certainly don’t see a number of regional parties like the BJD, TMC, AGP, TDP choosing sides and it may not be difficult to see another Deve Gowda type warm the PM’s seat for a change. Which means I am ruling out both Rahul Gandhi and Modi.

Rahul looks all of a young man who is about to succeed his father in business, but he does not give the vibes of an Anand Mahindra, or a Rajiv Bajaj, least of all a Mukesh Ambani. He is surrounded by an equally inexperienced bunch of advisors, or old school mentors like Digvijay Singh. Some of my friends inside the Congress Party have also told me of a palace conspiracy (benign type), wherein they feel that Sonia Gandhi’s team may not, in fact don’t, want Rahul to come to power fearing a change in the balance of power. Congress also has too many PM aspirants and even if they may talk publicly of supporting the North Korean style of succession, they will be looking at all opportunities to khiskaw young Rahul. Any way, no one listens to him. I suspect he has good, clean ideas and if left to himself, he may do better. He talks of being the architect of the Lokpal Bill, but his party admits to a Madhu Koda and also go easy on Mayawati. Lalu is a natural ally.

Modi will be the bigger disappointment. Between then and now, his shine is fading. He is an exemplary speaker, holds his audience spell-bound, but seems to have overplayed his card. He lacks humility and as much as we want to hear him share his plans about our neighbours, he has been very petty in targeting 10 Janpath. No, he is not Prime Ministerial candidate. He is arrogant and while he must be Top of the Pops, I don’t hear his domestic policies, foreign affair policy, not even an AAP type agenda. Sadly, he is proving to be a gas-bag. If Modified Indians are to be believed, Gen V K Singh will be his Defence Minister and Dr Ketan Desai, Health Minister. I am sure this is all a figment of the imagination, but honestly, do we see the BJP as a “team”? Or Modi as a one-man band? Worse, many of the CMs who have won clearly want him to stay out of their state. He could not swing it in Delhi. I have not heard him opine on Yeddurappa joining his party. In many ways he has taken the Congress route of building statutes and appearing in ads. He is a substitute, not an alternative.

So, we have a heavy duty 2014. Where will the economy go, no one knows. Even experts don’t. A year after Nirbhaya we have had a case of a girl being gang raped by two different gangs. The Samajwadi Party hosts a gala New Year’s party after giving marching orders to the residents camping in Shamli. Bollywood goes gaga with their financial success, even grossing 100 crores is now chicken feed.

Tomorrow is another day. Amen.

Will Mamata be Modi-fied?

Last week I was returning from Manesar in a bus and after the conductor had attended to all the passengers and issued the tickets, he started a conversation with the passengers on the prospect of Modi becoming the next Prime Minister. This was a day or two after Modi had addressed a massive rally in Delhi and I was keen to hear of the impact that he may have made. Once the subject was broached, almost every body joined in. “Everybody” here were factory workers, some farmers and some migrant construction workers. This was real India and I got in to the mood to be the silent observer and hear them out.

It was Modi all the way. Not just that, the conductor almost took on the role of becoming the chief advocate for Modi, taking center stage. Even though he blew up some data about Modi’s performance in Gujarat, it did not matter. The tone of his conviction and the wholesale agreement by the passengers left no doubt in my mind as to which way the wind was blowing. It was Modi and Modi all the way.

A few days later I was talking to a friend, a retired banker who had held very senior positions and was totally clued on to the business and finance matters, had told me very clearly that it was not just the case of the aam janta wanting Modi, the industry as a whole had decided for him.

Yesterday I was invited by a Rotary Club to address the members and as we munched paneer pakoras and harabhara kababs, accompanied by hot chai, the discussion slowly veered to Modi. The elite group, most of whom I have known personally for years, were clear in their choice. It was Modi.

Across board, as on date, it is Modi. And suddenly everything about him has a sense of an aura. The way he speaks, raises issues, walks, talks….he seems to be just the messiah we were waiting for. You don’t have to study pre poll studies, but the Congress Prime Ministerial nominee, Prince Rahul is a total wash out. After the usual media brouhaha, his much theatrical “Nonsense” is slowly turning in to the ridiculous.

“If we can forget that Sonia Gandhi is Italian, we can also forget Godhra,” someone had told me. “I know it is not the best solution, but we don’t have a choice. UPA has been a disaster. Everyone is corrupt. People are now talking openly about how 2G money had made its way to 10 Janpath,” my friend added.

Fair enough. But here is the catch. Will Modi’s party get the numbers? No. Not a case of popular mandate but just that BJP is not physically present across the states. They have no electoral presence in most of the NE states, Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu. Even political calculations in Delhi and Andhra are not clear. We will have to wait for the state elections in Chattisgarh and MP to understand the tone and mood though state elections are not always the best guide tracks for analyzing Lok Sabha polls. Yes, they can give us a fair indication.

In my earlier blogs I had talked about the role of the Regional Parties who could either make or break Modi’s ambitions. And I say Modi in the singular since his party is not united in working for his success. In fact, Modi is a lone ranger in his party, barring the support of a Rajnath Singh here and a Gadkari there. And of course, the entire machinery of Gujarat. At this point of time, he has turned in folk lore. And we have to grant it to him that he has done it single handed. He has done the magic of getting the people behind him. It does not matter that much of his success story in managing Gujarat has not been properly presented. For example:

In 10 years 60,000 small scale industries have been closed down.
* (source: Director, Department of Economics and Statistics, Government of Gujarat.2011-12)•
Gujarat ranks 5TH in F.D.I.(source: Director, Department of Economics and Statistics, Government of Gujarat. & Report by reserve bank of India.2011-12 )•
The state’s total debt was less than Rs 10,000 crore when the BJP first came to power in Gujarat in 1995. Gujarat’s actual debt has mounted from Rs 45,301 crore in 2001-02 when Modi took over to Rs 1,38,978 crore on December 30, 2012. The debt would mount to Rs 2,07,695 crore as per the state government’s budget estimates by 2015-16.
* (source: Director, Department of Economics and Statistics, Government of Gujarat. & Gujarat assembly question hours2011-12 )•
Gujarat is at 8th position in agricultural growth. Gujarat is never achieved 10% growth in Agriculture sector. As per Government of Gujarat’s own statistics from year 2005-2006 to 2010-2011, growth in GSDP in Agriculture and Allied sector is 3.44% only-not double digit or 10%.
*(source: Gujarateconomics and statistics department, govt. of Gujarat And Times Of India http:// timesofindia.ind ia……@ArchiveDigger)•
In Gujarat VAT on fertilizer is 5% it is highest in India
* (Source: Ministry of agriculture, Gujarat, 2010-11)•
In Gujarat 26 districts have 225 blocks in which 57 are dark zone blocks.
* (Source: Ministry of agriculture, Gujarat And annual report Narmada nigam,2011-12)•
455885 Applications are pending for agricultural power connection as on March,2011
* (Source: Ministry of agriculture, Gujarat,2011-12)•
Close to half of the states children under the age of 5 (44.6 %) are known to be suffering from malnutrition. 70 per cent are said to be anemic while 40 per cent are underweight.
* (Source: planning commission report-2012-13)
In 8 districts and 3 Talukas of Gujarat, 2494 teachers posts are vacant.
In 4 dist of Gujarat, approximately 978 schools are running with only 1 or 2 teachers.
* (Source: RTI filed by Vinod Pandya GOG reply to RTI, 2011-12)
* (Source: A report by NGO Ahmedabad Womens Assosiation Gujarat-AWAG-(TIMES NEWS NETWORK, 25 th Jan 2013 )•
The Deputy Speaker’s post is left vacant by the Gujarat Government for a decade.
* (As per article 178 of Indian constitution, it is compulsory)•
Assembly runs on an average for 30-32 days a year.•
No Lokayukta appointed since last 10 years.•
Gujarat has organized 3716 Employment festival” as per Government of Gujarat own record 10 lacks educated youth are unemployed and a total of 30 lakh people are unemployed.
* (Source: NASSO report,GOI,2011-12)•
NSSO data show that in Gujarat , growth in employment has dropped to almost zero in the past 12 years
A recent CAG review on accounts of the States is an eye-opener when it comes to Gujarat, the latter’s high claims notwithstanding. Allegedly there are Rs16,706.99 crore worth of financial and land allotment irregularities with resultant negative impact on delivery on economic and development fronts
* (Source: CAG report 2011-12)     

This data will not make sense to any one who is supporting Modi. And except the Congress Party workers, Left, Left intellectuals, Dr Amartya Sen, a large section of minorities, parties like DMK, AAP, etc everyone is supporting Modi!

Actually he is the best choice by default. He has been gifted to the Indian voters by an incompetent, inefficient and ineffective Congress led UPA. You may not support Modi, but you cannot deny that during the last 7 years the nation has been misruled. Looted. (Corruption is a weak word). The problem with the Congress Party is that they are hamstrung by the dynasty syndrome. The only reason they are perpetually in the 10 Janpath mode is simply because the Gandhis are the only reason for their existence. And a large number of them are totally convinced that Rahul will be a disaster. The Congress party actually has no agenda barring some window dressing strategies, most of which are designed to catch votes, and almost all of them have backfired. FDI in retail (the biggest retail chain, Walmart link up with Bharti has turned sour), the much hyped Adhaar has just gone someplace else and Direct Cash idea has been a no starter. Many of the hard core Congress men are openly revolting against the diktats. Rao Inderjit Singh is one.

Rahul Gandhi is no match for Modi. It’s a case of a walkover.

I have just one fear for the future. Modi becoming a Prime Minister will not happen through BJP numbers. It can only happen if Regional parties join in. Most coalition partners are all fence sitters and turn whichever the money blows.

Will we have a Modi regime with a Sharad Pawar, a Paswan, a BSP, a TMC? Will Modi be able to tame a Mamata or, a Pawar?

That will be the real challenge Modi will have to face.

As of today, the bus conductor to construction workers to the urban elite are rooting for Modi.

Digvijay Singh, Sir, aap ko kya lagta hai?      

Two Years Later…

Just two years ago I was treating myself to a lavish buffet breakfast at a Mumbai hotel with my laptop feeding me with the results of the Bengal elections. It was getting clearer by the minute that the Left have been thrashed and “Pariborton” or whatever the Bengal electorate had chosen to make out of it was coming in in a big way. I remember sending a text to my friend Urmimala, quoting a line from disgruntled Left poet, Subhash Mukhopahdaya’s epic May Dibosh, “Priyo, phool khelibar din noy odyo, kenona dhongsher mukhomukhi amra.”

I may have been intellectually correct to have quoted those lines, but two years later, it has all come true. In fact, it is worse.

The TMC and their great leader Mamata Bannerjee, aided, propped and supported by all anti-Left Groups and the media have done in 24 months what took the Left 34 years. Many of us were critical of the Left’s policies and had labeled them as real estate agents, complacent with their sense of permanency, “what we think, we think best” attitude still had a hope in Buddha Babu and his industrial policy. He symbolized the perfect Bengali bhadralok, an intellectual, who was perhaps breaking from party line to give Bengal a better future. But the person who replaced him as the Chief Minister of West Bengal is a megalomaniac with very little sense of running a state.

Today it will not be out of place to say that she is bereft of any ideology or principle, but that is not really an issue as most political parties in India are run on personal agendas, dynastic principles and “make it while you can” ideology. The issue is her non-Governance, something they had earlier accused Buddha Babu of during the Left regime. Never in the history of Bengal have we seen such a disaster, never seen anyone betraying the people who voted her in with a huge mandate.

The TMC rule has been a case of total indifference to people’s expectations. The Singur land has not been returned; there has been no new industry in Bengal, no fresh investment, and no improvement in social life. The party has bred some “buddhijibis”, whatever that means, many of whom were playing to the Left till they saw the signs of a change. And they have been more loyal than the Queen. Painter Suvaprassana’s work exhibited just before the polls, specially on the death of Jyoti Basu were pathetic to say the least, making a mockery of his artistic abilities (?). As was expected, many of them are now trying to run for cover. Kabir Suman’s position has been very confusing. I wonder that with the kind of hatred he has publicly demonstrated about his party, why is he still with the TMC? Why can’t he resign his seat and leave the party?

Kabir Suman is not the subject of this blog. TMC is. Is anyone clear as to what they are trying to do? Barring getting an academician behind bars for sharing an innocent cartoon, or call a rape victim a whore and then transferring the brave police officer who was handling the case to a rather innocuous post? Taking on the state election commission on days for Panchayat Elections and then losing the battle? Do we see anything positive in their actions? No matter how much their spokesperson tries to defend their party, all they can do is to start getting aggressive and then take on the Left on Nandigram. Their performance has been so dismal that the Governor of the state has been seen to regularly take matters in his hands.

Mere screaming and theatrics does not help the people. It does not help the party either. It is not helping.

With nothing positive to show, one Sudipto Sen has made matters worse. What will happen in the Saradha case we do not know, but it is obvious that TMC had a hand in the running of the Chit Fund. We never know but there could be more such scams coming up.

Audacity. Dictatorial attitude. High handedness. Incompetency. These words are apt to describe the TMC rule. And a Partho Chatterjee. Did Amit Mitra ever think that his good offices will attract the corporates to race to Bengal? How could he not see the writing on the wall even by changing his wardrobe?

Actually, the TMC is a case of misplaced trust. Not only she has betrayed the trust of the people, she has even betrayed the trust of her close aides. Forget that Singur land owners who played a pivotal role in bringing her to power are still waiting for her to keep her promise, the industrialists who ran to buy her much hyped paintings have also been given a bad deal. Her Bengal Leads have been a disastrous event, what with her changing the political boundaries of countries and talking to industrialists and prospective investors like talking to her party cadres has only generated a laugh, at best.

So where will Bengal go from here? It will depend, short term on the Panchayat polls (which too she has messed up) and coming by-elections, starting Howrah. Long term, it will depend on her positive performance (or otherwise) in the next one year. By which time the General Elections would have been completed and if she is not on the winning side, she will lose Bengal.

More important, however, she will be rejected by the people.

Will the TMC survive a full term?

Yes, they will. If anyone of you thought their mismanagement of the state and the wide spread corruption further fuelled by the Shardha case will bring about their downfall, you have another thought coming.

The reasons are not difficult to fathom. TMC have no opposition worth their weight in Bengal. The Congress can take to the streets and condemn her, but come 2014 polls, the state leaders will be told to cut-out the anti-TMC tamasha. As far as the Congress central leadership is concerned, they badly need the numbers to cobble up an alliance and they will depend on Mamata, as much as on Mayavati or Mulayam. At best, the state Congress leaders will sulk, feel deprived (a few may even queue up to join TMC), but Bengal Congress have been historically treated badly by Central leaders, despite producing some of the finest leaders in that party. The only Bengal leader that they may have been wary of was Dr B C Roy, but he too climbed the ladder by opposing the rebellious Congress leaders and that included Subhash Bose.

The Left have lost their way. From their body language, they seem to have lost the will to regroup and restart their organization. They have already made a mistake, asking their “people” to come back to he Left fold, but I am sure they know that many of their people are the very same janta who have shifted sides. The current Left Front Chairman never had the wisdom and stature of Pramod Dasgupta or Anil Biswas and is more apt at giving hilarious sound bytes, which are very amusing but do not work.  Buddhababu seems to be on a self-exile, most of the ministers in his cabinet seem to have gone into oblivion. Those who make news, do it for the wrong reasons. Sushant Ghosh, Abdul Rezzak Molla, Gautam Deb have not done any thing positive for the Left image.

While the Congress in Bengal may be a party surviving for statutory reasons — leaderless, rudderless, especially after Deepa Das Munshi, Mamata’s bête noir, becoming a minister, the Left’s inaction is a matter of concern. Their problem started when they started growing during their 34 years regime, accommodating any one and everyone who wanted to join the party, overlooking their ideological values as long as they had the numbers and yes, muscle power. They were not initiated in Marxist thinking (the last time I saw the dilapidated building that housed the Bhupesh Gupta School of Marxism, I thought it may crumble on the students) and as a result, they lost complete control on their “cadres.” Referred to as Benojol even by Left leaders, they are the same crowd who are running TMC’s muscle power. In more ways than one, a complacent Left had become a Real Estate company. A lawyer friend who was appointed to be the Court Receiver for a prime piece of land had once asked me to talk to a few land developers in Delhi NCR. I had talked to a friend of mine whose son-in-law was a big builder in Pune and extended my lawyer friend’s request.  I was told that the jamai had shuddered at the thought of doing a project in Bengal. First the CPM cadres will want subscription, CPI will suggest a vendor for bricks, RSP cement, Forward Block woodwork, and even smaller constituents paint, sanitary, right up to stone cobbles!! The story may be an exaggeration, but this is what the Left had reduced themselves to! On one hand Buddhababu may have been sincerely trying to put Bengal on the investment map, on the other the Nandigram fiasco, which was the last straw on the camel’s back simply helped to slide the Left’s credibility further. Not just the benojol, a large number of intellectuals who had Left leanings turned the other way. True, many of them who were close to the Left switched sides for personal benefits. The media, which may have been tired and sick of the Left’s high-handedness, took the opportunity to lambast the Left. As we understand now, many such media groups that mushroomed during this period were Shardha financed, but I know this for certain that a Bengali paper, otherwise neutral, decided to take sides simply because they wanted to increase their circulation. I also believe that the then Governor of Bengal, Gopal Gandhi could have done something more effective not for the Left, but at least save the Singur Project. Bengal needed it very badly. She needed the Nano.

Life in Bengal, political or otherwise, after the TMC came to power is not even worth recounting.  In 34 months she will do what took the Left 34 years. With the Left in disarray, there is every chance of her coming back in 2017. I know Shardha may make her loose her grip over the Panchayats, and that urban Bengal is thoroughly tired of her antics, a section of the media may have shifted base — but where is the Left?

Actually, the Left have left behind all the values they stood for.  Some of the leaders are providing good competition to Congress leaders as far as rhetoric is concerned, but barring some intelligent posts in Facebook, they seem to have lost their base. The new generation does not know much about Benoy Chaudhuri and the land reforms, they may not have even heard of Ratanlal Brahmin or Hemanta Basu. I don’t see any street meetings, the Left’s unique style of connecting with the masses, or for that matter street plays, agitations, Gano Sangeet performances. The ethos of the IPTA is gone, lyrics of Dehu Uthechey, Tara Phutechey, seem to have been lost forever.

Lost forever.

Change the System. Now.

We are all taking about Revolution. We are talking about bringing in a change in the system. And everything that is being discussed is within the existing system.

Call for an immediate session of the Parliament. Police Reforms. Judiciary Reforms. More judges. Fast track rape cases.

I have no faith in the current democratic system. And the political parties. The politician-political-all kinds of mafia nexus will never allow the changes. They all have vested interests and the interest of the people are not in their list.

The response of the political class, specially those in power have been appalling. The much hyped youth icon Rahul baba did not have the courage to come and show his support for the youths of the country. He failed to show courage. Nor did the other youth leaders of any political party.

The “adult” political class did all to protect themselves from the people. They just forgot that they are representatives of the people. Sheila Dikshit made an attempt but was booed out. The Hon’ble (?) Home Minister abused his chair by talking out of context. (“Should I go and meet Maoists/BJP/ Communists/Adivasis?” Yes, Mr Shinde, you will. That’s your job). The Prime Minister, true to his reputation, has/had nothing to say. (He did read out a written speech and asked if it was OK and made a statement.  He went to receive the body of the girl well past midnight with Sonia Gandhi, but that I suspect was vote bank politics). Sonia Gandhi cried in expressing grief for the girl’s death. Said she was a mother too. Her sarkar fired water cannons at her children at India Gate. Surprisingly Ambica Soni, Kapil Sibal, Salman Khurshid and Chidambaram spoke little (actually nothing, seemed they were told to lay off lest they make matters worse with their well rehearsed comments/smirk which makes you feel that we are the biggest idiots on earth). Most Congress leaders stayed away from TV debates (may be they were not invited, which was a good idea else we would have to listen to Manish Tewari talking in monotones) and representatives of other political parties who came and when accosted that politicians have failed the people, said that we should not paint them in the same brush. The BJP, who too lack political will, kept taking digs at the Congress. That is the only agenda they have. Mayawati did say something. Mulayam, “parkati” Yadav, Laloo did not deliver platitudes. May be they find the challenge too hot to handle.

The problem is all political parties can’t give up the privileges they enjoy. And they can’t fail the people who pay them money. That is the truth. The Police have to toe the politician’s line. The judiciary too is not above suspicion. Some judges are even vocal about their “brother” judges. They are scared of the people. They can’t protect the people but have done everything to protect themselves from the anger and angst. They are cowards!

What I am suggesting is an out of the box thinking. Can we suspend the Parliament for a specified time and get a National government on a care taker basis to take over and run the show? A similar Caretaker Government in Bangladesh has been very successful. They come in for a limited period and clean up the system.

I am suggesting that Justice Verma head this Government and we have people like Dr N Ram, Prabhat Pattanaik, Narayan Murthy, S K Misra, Joyeeta Ghosh, Amita Patel, B B Lyngdoh, KPS Gill, Dipankar Mukherjee, Prof Sukanta Chaudhuri, people who have scored in their respective fields. Professionals. People who are not a part of the political system. People who are not bothered about the beacon in their cars. Claen. No charges of corruption. Who do not have to toe the 10 Janpath line and not owe their future to Rahul Gandhi, eg: Digvijay Sngh. People who do not have to use words like “our Great Leader” ( Karunandhi/ Mamata).

People will say that the Constitution does not allow such a system. Does it allow what has been happening? Time to make changes.

As long as “We The People” remains the first line of the Constitution, we can make all changes, as long as it is betterment of the “We The People”.